Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 97758.410013 103038.097197 108312.777722 113974.354832 119875.598005 125841.735574 132325.783700
2025-08-31 88246.362212 96264.369512 104495.276687 113565.643712 123269.732452 133329.704043 144536.087687
2025-09-07 82711.116150 92699.257669 103172.771672 114952.194404 127808.923801 141393.128795 156808.489330
2025-09-14 78205.885734 89668.208472 101903.427650 115899.345647 131428.883961 148094.327643 167292.931008
2025-09-21 73999.354369 86574.082683 100209.270960 116039.914964 133858.690443 153239.608003 175856.813203
2025-09-28 70437.997510 83926.528053 98761.365869 116215.581456 136114.195492 158016.504332 183868.722447
2025-10-05 68366.208026 82799.603516 98875.460642 118014.285675 140080.322122 164623.218438 193881.459332
2025-10-12 66360.678616 81609.028387 98794.024278 119478.639592 143576.069801 170636.927416 203191.665394
2025-10-19 64172.168350 80079.775173 98210.424583 120261.224271 146203.640439 175600.521022 211268.068911
2025-10-26 61837.000152 78263.132216 97188.601477 120436.570279 148044.920649 179599.180300 218194.430065
2025-11-02 59864.034537 76788.140629 96488.215849 120915.979820 150181.577381 183899.286081 225451.797390
2025-11-09 57782.276957 75094.256291 95448.033270 120917.307384 151691.000543 187421.032181 231772.068550
2025-11-16 56479.231999 74322.024074 95499.939837 122230.007515 154786.889450 192862.598690 240445.607538
2025-11-23 54526.275482 72677.201743 94431.386130 122131.521389 156145.894016 196219.710018 246642.602520
2025-11-30 53523.981955 72177.145887 94731.371035 123679.534190 159488.109469 201955.034765 255716.282157
2025-12-07 52332.068927 71389.177376 94633.699777 124702.525925 162166.169691 206883.773840 263832.649597
2025-12-14 50796.170784 70108.159833 93871.938176 124855.733790 163739.105907 210451.913958 270296.191545
2025-12-21 49361.710476 68908.961359 93169.266658 125043.137030 165323.613867 214016.772698 276755.247653
2025-12-28 48791.949028 68808.349760 93840.902577 126952.835740 169056.601694 220233.446819 286503.594573
2026-01-04 48097.330821 68516.001543 94245.221925 128507.200375 172338.716405 225903.283623 295607.389917
2026-01-11 47122.770263 67820.381662 94102.049698 129337.790106 174692.473189 230419.988286 303298.296527
2026-01-18 45918.886411 66782.095274 93481.460396 129523.884168 176205.283380 233877.290801 309674.344768
2026-01-25 44904.902232 65968.630848 93127.586697 130032.658699 178115.379194 237829.082157 316681.573086